• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Janvier 2020

Janvier 2020 - Fvrier 2020 - Mars 2020 - Avril 2020 - Mai 2020 - Juin 2020


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
11/12/2019 12Z+0.8 C+0.3 C+2.3 C+1.5 C+1.4 C+0 C+0.8 C
11/12/2019 06Z+2.1 C+1.5 C+2.1 C+1.3 C+2.4 C+1.1 C+2.2 C
11/12/2019 00Z+2.4 C+1.8 C+2.3 C+1.5 C+2.9 C+1.5 C+2.8 C
10/12/2019 18Z+3.1 C+2.1 C+3.2 C+1.8 C+3.8 C+2.2 C+3.8 C
10/12/2019 12Z-0.8 C-0.2 C-1.1 C+0.4 C+0.8 C-0.8 C+0.6 C
10/12/2019 06Z+1.2 C+0.6 C+1.8 C+0.8 C+1.8 C+0.2 C+1.9 C
10/12/2019 00Z-4.8 C-3.1 C-4.8 C-2.8 C-3.9 C-5.9 C-4.3 C
09/12/2019 18Z+0.6 C+0.3 C+0.5 C+1.2 C+1.4 C-0.4 C+1.5 C
09/12/2019 12Z-1.1 C-0.1 C+0.8 C-0.1 C-0.2 C-0.8 C+0.1 C
09/12/2019 06Z+0.1 C+0.4 C+0.7 C+0.9 C+1 C-0.6 C+1.1 C
09/12/2019 00Z+1.9 C+1.5 C+2.4 C+1.7 C+2.6 C+1.8 C+3.3 C
08/12/2019 18Z+1.6 C+2.1 C+2.5 C+1.9 C+2.9 C+1.9 C+2.9 C
08/12/2019 12Z-0.6 C-0.1 C+0.6 C-0.1 C-0.5 C-1.1 C-0.4 C
08/12/2019 06Z+0.5 C+0.3 C+1.3 C+1.4 C+1.4 C+0.1 C+0.7 C
08/12/2019 00Z+1.4 C+0.4 C+1.3 C+1.2 C+2.3 C+-0 C+1.7 C
07/12/2019 18Z+3.7 C+2.3 C+3.7 C+2.6 C+4 C+2.9 C+4.4 C
07/12/2019 12Z+1.8 C+1.4 C+2.1 C+1.9 C+2.2 C+1.6 C+3.2 C
07/12/2019 06Z-1 C-2 C-0.7 C-0.9 C-0.3 C-3.1 C-1.5 C
07/12/2019 00Z-0.7 C+0.5 C+0.8 C-0.2 C-0.8 C+0.5 C+1.4 C
06/12/2019 18Z+1.2 C+0.7 C+2.6 C+1.3 C+1.2 C+0.4 C+1.2 C
06/12/2019 12Z+2.2 C+1.1 C+3.4 C+1.9 C+2.2 C+1 C+1.9 C
06/12/2019 06Z+1.3 C+0.5 C+2.1 C+1.8 C+2 C+0.6 C+2.1 C
06/12/2019 00Z+0.7 C+0.9 C+1.6 C+0.6 C+1.5 C+0.4 C+2 C
05/12/2019 18Z+0.5 C+-0 C+1.1 C+0.2 C+1.3 C-0.9 C+0.6 C
05/12/2019 12Z+0.9 C+1.1 C+1.4 C+1.3 C+1.7 C+0.9 C+1.7 C
05/12/2019 06Z+2.3 C+1.5 C+3.2 C+2.3 C+2.9 C+2 C+2.3 C
05/12/2019 00Z+1 C+0.8 C+0.7 C+0.8 C+2.3 C+0.5 C+2 C
04/12/2019 18Z+0.1 C+0.8 C+1.9 C+0.5 C+0.8 C+0.3 C+1.3 C
04/12/2019 12Z+0.9 C+-0 C+1.2 C+1.1 C+1.3 C-0.5 C+1.4 C
04/12/2019 06Z+1.5 C+1.4 C+2.8 C+1.3 C+1.4 C+1.3 C+2 C
Moyenne+0.8 C+0.6 C+1.5 C+1 C+1.5 C+0.2 C+1.5 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
11/12/2019 12Z+2 C-0.4 C+2.3 C+2 C+1.9 C+1.3 C+1.5 C
11/12/2019 06Z-0.2 C+0.3 C+0.5 C-0.6 C-0.6 C+0.2 C-0.1 C
11/12/2019 00Z-0.1 C+0.2 C+0.4 C-0.7 C-0.2 C+0.7 C+0.8 C
10/12/2019 18Z+2.1 C+1.7 C+2.4 C+1.3 C+1.9 C+2.7 C+2.8 C
10/12/2019 12Z+0.2 C-2 C-1.1 C-0.7 C+0.7 C-1.2 C+0.2 C
10/12/2019 06Z-0.2 C-1.1 C+0.1 C-0.2 C+0 C-0.2 C+0.2 C
10/12/2019 00Z-4.3 C-5.4 C-5.3 C-4.8 C-3.7 C-5 C-4.7 C
09/12/2019 18Z+1.4 C-1.2 C-0.1 C+0.5 C+1.9 C+0.5 C+2.1 C
09/12/2019 12Z+0.2 C-2.3 C-0.2 C+0.2 C-0.1 C-1.1 C-0.9 C
09/12/2019 06Z-0.4 C-0.7 C-0.5 C-0.7 C-0.4 C-0.4 C-0.3 C
09/12/2019 00Z+1.9 C-0.2 C+1.6 C+0.9 C+2.2 C+1.4 C+2.4 C
08/12/2019 18Z+4.8 C+2.2 C+4.1 C+3.9 C+5.1 C+4 C+4.9 C
08/12/2019 12Z-1 C-1.1 C-0.1 C-0.9 C-1.6 C-1 C-1.8 C
08/12/2019 06Z+2.3 C-1 C+1.8 C+2 C+2.6 C+1.4 C+1.9 C
08/12/2019 00Z+0.2 C-1.1 C+0.1 C-0.2 C+0.5 C+0.1 C+0.6 C
07/12/2019 18Z+3 C+2.6 C+3.4 C+2.2 C+2.8 C+3.1 C+3 C
07/12/2019 12Z+1.1 C+0.7 C+1.3 C+0.8 C+1 C+1.4 C+1.5 C
07/12/2019 06Z-2 C-2.5 C-1 C-0.8 C-2.1 C-2.9 C-2.8 C
07/12/2019 00Z-0.7 C-0.6 C-0.4 C-1.2 C-1.2 C-0.2 C-0.2 C
06/12/2019 18Z+0.2 C-0.3 C+0.9 C-0.2 C-0.1 C+0.4 C+0.2 C
06/12/2019 12Z+0.6 C-0.4 C+1.3 C+0.5 C+0.5 C+0.4 C+0.4 C
06/12/2019 06Z+2.3 C-0.4 C+1.9 C+1.8 C+2.9 C+1.7 C+2.6 C
06/12/2019 00Z+0.7 C-0.3 C+1.5 C+1.4 C+0.2 C+0.2 C+0 C
05/12/2019 18Z+0.9 C-1.6 C+0.8 C+0.7 C+1.3 C-0.6 C+0.3 C
05/12/2019 12Z+0.3 C+0.7 C+0.7 C+0.2 C+0.3 C+0.6 C+0.2 C
05/12/2019 06Z+3 C-1 C+3.1 C+2.3 C+3.5 C+1.6 C+2.3 C
05/12/2019 00Z+0.8 C-0.2 C+0.6 C+0.6 C+0.8 C+0.5 C+0.9 C
04/12/2019 18Z+1.5 C-0.6 C+1.7 C+1.6 C+1.5 C+0.7 C+0.9 C
04/12/2019 12Z-0.5 C-1.3 C-0.6 C-0.1 C-0.6 C-1 C-1.1 C
04/12/2019 06Z+0.3 C-0.3 C+1 C+0.1 C-0.1 C+0 C-0.4 C
Moyenne+0.7 C-0.6 C+0.7 C+0.4 C+0.7 C+0.3 C+0.6 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
11/12/2019 12Z-17 %+74.2 %-17.4 %-22.9 %-24.3 %-8.9 %-51.6 %
11/12/2019 06Z+72.2 %-21.5 %+162.2 %+53.5 %+40.5 %+146.2 %+94.3 %
11/12/2019 00Z+64.1 %-8.9 %+41.7 %+42.5 %+74.6 %+113.5 %+43.2 %
10/12/2019 18Z+20.4 %+52.7 %+163.3 %+78.7 %+11.5 %+119.8 %+27.8 %
10/12/2019 12Z-7.7 %-1.5 %+8.5 %+44.8 %-11.1 %-3.9 %-56.9 %
10/12/2019 06Z+116.8 %+55.8 %+72.2 %+39.8 %+101.9 %+157 %+9.2 %
10/12/2019 00Z-68.5 %-73.8 %-75.9 %-77.2 %-67.9 %-72 %-73.8 %
09/12/2019 18Z-57.3 %+56.9 %-32.9 %-17.6 %-60.1 %+7.1 %-74.1 %
09/12/2019 12Z-61.8 %-81.8 %-49.8 %-29.9 %-64.7 %-58.3 %-57.8 %
09/12/2019 06Z+83.2 %-70.5 %+105.5 %+17 %+61.8 %+117.8 %+35.4 %
09/12/2019 00Z+13.6 %-55.2 %-4.6 %+18.5 %+9.4 %-7.9 %-49.6 %
08/12/2019 18Z-86 %-88.5 %-91 %-77.5 %-80.5 %-88.7 %-83 %
08/12/2019 12Z+10 %-50.4 %-46.3 %-43 %+4.3 %+6.2 %-3.3 %
08/12/2019 06Z-44 %-77.8 %-82.1 %-68.2 %-50.7 %-46.3 %-65.9 %
08/12/2019 00Z+0.1 %-31.3 %+43.3 %-16.3 %+15.6 %+17.9 %-12.5 %
07/12/2019 18Z+31.7 %-80.2 %+1.7 %+17.1 %+79.3 %-4.9 %-2.9 %
07/12/2019 12Z+36.4 %-62.9 %-33.3 %-0.8 %+57.8 %-17.1 %+13.8 %
07/12/2019 06Z-9.1 %+242.2 %+0.9 %-22.8 %-31 %+48.1 %-37.8 %
07/12/2019 00Z-0.6 %+93.3 %+50.6 %+13 %+3.9 %+103.8 %-13 %
06/12/2019 18Z+14.7 %+1.5 %+84.8 %+1 %-14.9 %+116.9 %+9.3 %
06/12/2019 12Z+92.1 %-20.3 %+32.6 %-8.6 %+60.9 %+109.7 %+76.8 %
06/12/2019 06Z-35 %-63.2 %-76.9 %-27.9 %-29.6 %-69.3 %-62.2 %
06/12/2019 00Z+13.8 %-69.1 %+10.9 %-43.4 %+29.9 %+45.5 %+31.6 %
05/12/2019 18Z-69.7 %+29.6 %-69.7 %-59.2 %-71.8 %-51.6 %-62.5 %
05/12/2019 12Z+17.5 %+34.2 %-38.4 %+7.3 %-5.3 %+2.3 %-21.4 %
05/12/2019 06Z-49.1 %+43.1 %-69.6 %-37.5 %-50.4 %-38.3 %-77.2 %
05/12/2019 00Z-46.6 %-92.7 %-59.7 %-44 %-28.9 %-38.3 %-28.5 %
04/12/2019 18Z+19.6 %-75.4 %+7.8 %+20.9 %+27.2 %+29 %-1.4 %
04/12/2019 12Z+45.7 %-9.9 %+141 %+46.6 %+46.9 %+101 %+8.6 %
04/12/2019 06Z+74.4 %-16.9 %+42.1 %+29.1 %+124.2 %+82.6 %+91.9 %
Moyenne+5.8 %-12.3 %+7.4 %-5.6 %+5.3 %+27.3 %-13.1 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
11/12/2019 12Z+0 hPa+1.1 hPa-2.4 hPa-2 hPa+1.2 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.4 hPa
11/12/2019 06Z-8.1 hPa-3.6 hPa-4.6 hPa-7.8 hPa-9.2 hPa-5.2 hPa-7.1 hPa
11/12/2019 00Z-5.1 hPa-1 hPa-2.4 hPa-5.7 hPa-6.3 hPa-2.4 hPa-4.3 hPa
10/12/2019 18Z-11.5 hPa-5.6 hPa-10.3 hPa-14.3 hPa-12 hPa-8.2 hPa-9.1 hPa
10/12/2019 12Z-2 hPa-0.3 hPa-2.2 hPa-3.8 hPa-2 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.8 hPa
10/12/2019 06Z-2.4 hPa+0.6 hPa-1.5 hPa-3.1 hPa-2.8 hPa-0.6 hPa-1.4 hPa
10/12/2019 00Z+13 hPa+6.6 hPa+9 hPa+14.6 hPa+15.2 hPa+8.5 hPa+11.4 hPa
09/12/2019 18Z+7 hPa+7.2 hPa+5.5 hPa+4.8 hPa+8.3 hPa+6.7 hPa+7.7 hPa
09/12/2019 12Z+5 hPa+3.4 hPa+1.7 hPa+2.9 hPa+6.8 hPa+3.1 hPa+5 hPa
09/12/2019 06Z-0.7 hPa+1.6 hPa+2.2 hPa+-0 hPa-1.7 hPa+0.9 hPa-0.6 hPa
09/12/2019 00Z+0.1 hPa+5.4 hPa+0.6 hPa-3.8 hPa-0.4 hPa+3.2 hPa+2.6 hPa
08/12/2019 18Z+11.2 hPa+11.5 hPa+8.2 hPa+9.1 hPa+11.9 hPa+10.8 hPa+11.7 hPa
08/12/2019 12Z+0.7 hPa-0.5 hPa-0.5 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.5 hPa-0.2 hPa+0.4 hPa
08/12/2019 06Z+11.7 hPa+11.8 hPa+9 hPa+10.3 hPa+12.6 hPa+10.8 hPa+12.1 hPa
08/12/2019 00Z-1.1 hPa+2 hPa+0.2 hPa-1.3 hPa-2 hPa+1 hPa-0.6 hPa
07/12/2019 18Z-2 hPa+1.7 hPa-0.7 hPa-3.3 hPa-2.5 hPa+0.2 hPa-1.1 hPa
07/12/2019 12Z+1.5 hPa+3.7 hPa+2.4 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.1 hPa+2.8 hPa+1.5 hPa
07/12/2019 06Z-3.2 hPa-6.7 hPa-5.7 hPa-3.8 hPa-1.5 hPa-5.3 hPa-3.7 hPa
07/12/2019 00Z-10.8 hPa-9.4 hPa-12.8 hPa-13 hPa-8.6 hPa-11.1 hPa-10.2 hPa
06/12/2019 18Z-8.8 hPa-5.1 hPa-7.7 hPa-8.9 hPa-8.6 hPa-7 hPa-8 hPa
06/12/2019 12Z-1.5 hPa+3.1 hPa+0.4 hPa-1.4 hPa-2.1 hPa+1.4 hPa-1 hPa
06/12/2019 06Z+10.4 hPa+12.8 hPa+8.7 hPa+7.8 hPa+10.9 hPa+11.4 hPa+11.5 hPa
06/12/2019 00Z+4.1 hPa+5.4 hPa+5 hPa+5.7 hPa+3.5 hPa+4.7 hPa+3.1 hPa
05/12/2019 18Z+5.4 hPa+3.9 hPa+1.9 hPa+4.6 hPa+7 hPa+4.2 hPa+5.7 hPa
05/12/2019 12Z-2.1 hPa-0.9 hPa-2.8 hPa-4.3 hPa-1.7 hPa-1.6 hPa-1.2 hPa
05/12/2019 06Z+9.5 hPa+12 hPa+6.4 hPa+5.9 hPa+10.7 hPa+10.2 hPa+11.8 hPa
05/12/2019 00Z+5.2 hPa+5.3 hPa+4.7 hPa+5.2 hPa+4.7 hPa+5.1 hPa+4.7 hPa
04/12/2019 18Z-1.3 hPa+1.6 hPa-2 hPa-4 hPa-1.4 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.2 hPa
04/12/2019 12Z-6.2 hPa-3.4 hPa-3.6 hPa-5.9 hPa-6.6 hPa-4.1 hPa-5.6 hPa
04/12/2019 06Z-2 hPa+1.6 hPa-0.4 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.3 hPa+0.1 hPa-1.5 hPa
Moyenne+0.5 hPa+2.2 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.8 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.1 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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