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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Août 2019

Août 2019 - Septembre 2019 - Octobre 2019 - Novembre 2019 - Décembre 2019 - Janvier 2020


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
18/07/2019 06Z-0.6 °C+0.4 °C+0.2 °C+1.3 °C-0.1 °C-1.4 °C+0.2 °C
18/07/2019 00Z-0.4 °C-0.6 °C+0.5 °C+2.4 °C+0.6 °C-2.7 °C-1 °C
17/07/2019 18Z-1.9 °C-1.4 °C-1.3 °C+1 °C-1 °C-3.9 °C-1.7 °C
17/07/2019 12Z-0.9 °C-0.8 °C+0.2 °C+2.4 °C-0.2 °C-3 °C-1.2 °C
17/07/2019 06Z+1.4 °C+1.7 °C+2.8 °C+3.4 °C+2 °C+0.1 °C+2.2 °C
17/07/2019 00Z-1.3 °C-1.2 °C-0.5 °C+1.1 °C-0.3 °C-3.1 °C-1 °C
16/07/2019 18Z-0.7 °C-0.3 °C+1.2 °C+2 °C-0.1 °C-2.3 °C-0.8 °C
16/07/2019 12Z+0.3 °C+0.1 °C+1 °C+2 °C+1.1 °C-1.7 °C+1.6 °C
16/07/2019 06Z-0.7 °C-0.2 °C+0.1 °C+1.7 °C+0 °C-2.2 °C+0.1 °C
16/07/2019 00Z+0.6 °C-0.3 °C+1.4 °C+2.8 °C+1.3 °C-1.5 °C+0.4 °C
15/07/2019 18Z-1.7 °C-0.9 °C-0.9 °C+0.5 °C-0.7 °C-3.4 °C-0.9 °C
15/07/2019 12Z+1.3 °C+0.3 °C+2.1 °C+2.8 °C+1.8 °C-0.7 °C+1 °C
15/07/2019 06Z-1.5 °C-1.3 °C+0.8 °C+1.4 °C-0.9 °C-2.8 °C-1.2 °C
15/07/2019 00Z+0.6 °C-0.1 °C+2.6 °C+2.8 °C+1.1 °C-1.5 °C+0.1 °C
14/07/2019 18Z-1.4 °C-0.2 °C-0.4 °C+1.7 °C-0.2 °C-3 °C-0.8 °C
14/07/2019 12Z-2 °C-0.7 °C-0.2 °C+1.9 °C-1.4 °C-3.6 °C-2.5 °C
14/07/2019 06Z-0.3 °C+1 °C+1 °C+2.1 °C+0.3 °C-1.2 °C+0.8 °C
14/07/2019 00Z-0.8 °C-0.1 °C-0.1 °C+1.6 °C+0.1 °C-2.7 °C-0.1 °C
13/07/2019 18Z-1 °C-0.5 °C+0.4 °C+1.9 °C-0.3 °C-3.1 °C-1.7 °C
13/07/2019 12Z-1 °C-0.4 °C+0 °C+1.8 °C-0.1 °C-2.8 °C-0.6 °C
13/07/2019 06Z-1.5 °C-0.6 °C-0.9 °C+1.2 °C-0.6 °C-2.7 °C-0.9 °C
13/07/2019 00Z+1.9 °C+1 °C+4.1 °C+4.1 °C+1.9 °C+-0 °C+1.8 °C
12/07/2019 18Z-3.2 °C-1.6 °C-1.5 °C+0.4 °C-2.3 °C-5.2 °C-3.3 °C
12/07/2019 12Z+0.3 °C+2.3 °C+3.1 °C+2.4 °C+0.7 °C-0.7 °C+0.5 °C
12/07/2019 06Z-1 °C-0.1 °C+0.4 °C+1.8 °C-0.2 °C-2.8 °C-0.6 °C
12/07/2019 00Z-0.9 °C-0.4 °C-0.1 °C+1.9 °C+0.3 °C-3.3 °C-0.5 °C
11/07/2019 18Z-1.1 °C+0.4 °C+1.3 °C+1.4 °C-0.5 °C-1.8 °C-0.6 °C
11/07/2019 12Z+0.2 °C-0.6 °C+0.8 °C+2.6 °C+1.2 °C-2.6 °C-0.3 °C
11/07/2019 06Z-0.2 °C+1.4 °C+1.7 °C+2.5 °C+0.6 °C-1.5 °C+0 °C
11/07/2019 00Z+1.2 °C+0.9 °C+3.1 °C+3.6 °C+1.8 °C-0.5 °C+0.8 °C
Moyenne-0.5 °C-0.1 °C+0.8 °C+2 °C+0.2 °C-2.3 °C-0.3 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
18/07/2019 06Z+0.1 °C+0.3 °C-0.1 °C-0.6 °C+0.1 °C+0.5 °C+0.3 °C
18/07/2019 00Z-0.1 °C-2.2 °C-0.3 °C+0.8 °C+0.3 °C-1.3 °C-1.1 °C
17/07/2019 18Z-1.1 °C-2.5 °C-1.4 °C-0.8 °C-0.6 °C-2.3 °C-1.8 °C
17/07/2019 12Z-0.4 °C-2.1 °C-0.9 °C+0.5 °C+-0 °C-1.7 °C-1.4 °C
17/07/2019 06Z+2.2 °C-0.1 °C+1.9 °C+1.4 °C+2.5 °C+1.8 °C+2.4 °C
17/07/2019 00Z-1.2 °C-2.4 °C-1.7 °C-1.3 °C-0.6 °C-1.6 °C-1.2 °C
16/07/2019 18Z-0.1 °C-1.1 °C+0.5 °C+0.4 °C-0.1 °C-0.4 °C-1 °C
16/07/2019 12Z+0.9 °C-1.8 °C-0.2 °C+0.3 °C+1.5 °C-0.2 °C+1.5 °C
16/07/2019 06Z+0.1 °C-0.8 °C+0.3 °C+0.2 °C+-0 °C-0.2 °C-0.1 °C
16/07/2019 00Z+0.9 °C-1.4 °C+0.4 °C+1.3 °C+1.1 °C+0.1 °C+0.3 °C
15/07/2019 18Z-1.5 °C-2.2 °C-2.4 °C-2 °C-1.1 °C-1.8 °C-1.1 °C
15/07/2019 12Z+1.6 °C-0.8 °C+1.6 °C+1.7 °C+1.4 °C+0.8 °C+0.8 °C
15/07/2019 06Z-0.9 °C-2.2 °C+0.4 °C-0.6 °C-1 °C-1.3 °C-1.2 °C
15/07/2019 00Z+1.9 °C-1.4 °C+2 °C+2.3 °C+1.9 °C+0.1 °C+0.1 °C
14/07/2019 18Z-0.8 °C-1.5 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C-0.4 °C-1.3 °C-0.8 °C
14/07/2019 12Z-1.2 °C-2.2 °C-1 °C-0.1 °C-1.1 °C-1.9 °C-2.5 °C
14/07/2019 06Z+0.4 °C+0.2 °C+0.5 °C+0.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+0.4 °C
14/07/2019 00Z-0.4 °C-1.8 °C-0.8 °C-0.9 °C-0.1 °C-1.3 °C-0.2 °C
13/07/2019 18Z-0.5 °C-2.1 °C-0.6 °C+0.7 °C-0.5 °C-1.5 °C-1.7 °C
13/07/2019 12Z-0.5 °C-1.9 °C-0.7 °C-0.3 °C-0.2 °C-1.2 °C-0.6 °C
13/07/2019 06Z-0.9 °C-1.3 °C-1.1 °C-0.8 °C-0.9 °C-1.1 °C-0.9 °C
13/07/2019 00Z+3.2 °C-0.2 °C+3.9 °C+3.8 °C+2.7 °C+2 °C+2.1 °C
12/07/2019 18Z-3.3 °C-3.8 °C-3.2 °C-2.6 °C-2.8 °C-4.1 °C-3.8 °C
12/07/2019 12Z+1.5 °C+1.2 °C+2.8 °C+1.3 °C+1.2 °C+1.5 °C+0.6 °C
12/07/2019 06Z-0.5 °C-1.7 °C-0.4 °C-0.1 °C-0.5 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C
12/07/2019 00Z-0.6 °C-2.2 °C-1.4 °C-0.6 °C+-0 °C-1.7 °C-0.9 °C
11/07/2019 18Z-0.6 °C-0.9 °C+0.2 °C-0.1 °C-0.9 °C-0.1 °C-0.8 °C
11/07/2019 12Z+0.7 °C-2.2 °C-0.3 °C+0.8 °C+1.3 °C-1.1 °C-0.1 °C
11/07/2019 06Z+1 °C-0.3 °C+1.3 °C+1.4 °C+1 °C+0.1 °C+0.2 °C
11/07/2019 00Z+2.1 °C-0.2 °C+2.9 °C+2.5 °C+2.2 °C+1.4 °C+1 °C
Moyenne+0.1 °C-1.4 °C+0 °C+0.3 °C+0.2 °C-0.6 °C-0.4 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
18/07/2019 06Z+103.7 %-52.9 %+9.7 %+76.6 %+21.2 %+61.1 %+28.9 %
18/07/2019 00Z+22.3 %+205 %-14.2 %-56.8 %-39.8 %+21.7 %-5.3 %
17/07/2019 18Z+112.6 %+152.2 %+77.1 %+100.7 %+77.3 %+113.3 %+20.6 %
17/07/2019 12Z+20.3 %-8.3 %-30.3 %-24.1 %+20 %-11.7 %-2.6 %
17/07/2019 06Z+59.1 %+78.3 %+59.9 %-26.8 %-23.2 %+42.8 %-3.6 %
17/07/2019 00Z+66.6 %+46.2 %-1.9 %+0.5 %-62.3 %+85 %+52.8 %
16/07/2019 18Z+24.7 %+151.4 %-31.5 %-29.7 %-23.2 %-0.1 %-44.7 %
16/07/2019 12Z+83.5 %+471.3 %+182.8 %+34.7 %-7 %+140.6 %+16.7 %
16/07/2019 06Z+41.1 %+86.4 %+59.2 %-31.6 %-18.3 %+107.9 %-15.9 %
16/07/2019 00Z+12.7 %-85.2 %-36.6 %-55.7 %+19.1 %-17.8 %-53 %
15/07/2019 18Z-15.1 %+115.7 %-50.5 %+1.5 %-18.3 %-0.4 %-45.5 %
15/07/2019 12Z-11.6 %-37.1 %-27.9 %-54.9 %-51.6 %-14.2 %-6.3 %
15/07/2019 06Z+2.4 %+45.6 %+25.1 %-64.5 %-48.4 %+182.9 %+39.2 %
15/07/2019 00Z-25.5 %-87.8 %-60.8 %-51.9 %-43.8 %-53.5 %-46 %
14/07/2019 18Z+70.6 %+409.1 %+161.4 %+87.5 %+21.3 %+209 %+49.8 %
14/07/2019 12Z-40.9 %+109.9 %+22.9 %-21.2 %-0.2 %+62.9 %+20.8 %
14/07/2019 06Z+47.6 %+7.9 %+0.9 %+146.4 %+19 %+43.2 %-23.8 %
14/07/2019 00Z+16 %+240.8 %+44.2 %+16.5 %-8 %+79.9 %+19.1 %
13/07/2019 18Z-40.5 %-88.2 %-80.1 %-74.1 %-44.3 %-51.4 %-33.5 %
13/07/2019 12Z+12.4 %+220.8 %+98 %+37.2 %+21.2 %+198.6 %+10.9 %
13/07/2019 06Z+54.6 %+76.6 %+202.8 %-7 %-25.4 %+75.4 %+19.8 %
13/07/2019 00Z+26.8 %-16.1 %+52.9 %+0.2 %-9.9 %+43.1 %-50.2 %
12/07/2019 18Z-3.9 %-39.9 %-30.4 %-19.2 %-1.4 %-3.7 %-9.5 %
12/07/2019 12Z+100.9 %-12.7 %-12.7 %+70.4 %-9.7 %+75.9 %-22.5 %
12/07/2019 06Z-40.2 %+138.8 %-25.2 %-28.6 %-36.3 %+66 %-15.6 %
12/07/2019 00Z+90.5 %+344.7 %+163.3 %+48.5 %+24.4 %+31.6 %-36 %
11/07/2019 18Z-50.4 %-30 %-72.6 %-15.4 %-52.6 %+8.6 %-41.6 %
11/07/2019 12Z+76 %+4 %+34.3 %+24.1 %+22.3 %+32.6 %-10.3 %
11/07/2019 06Z+78.6 %-96.2 %-54.2 %-63.3 %+38.1 %-37.5 %+13.6 %
11/07/2019 00Z+20.5 %-95.8 %+6.8 %-61.5 %-30.9 %-37.7 %-79.7 %
Moyenne+30.5 %+75.2 %+22.4 %-1.4 %-9 %+48.5 %-8.4 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
18/07/2019 06Z-1.2 hPa-0.1 hPa-1.1 hPa-2.5 hPa-1.3 hPa-0.4 hPa-0.4 hPa
18/07/2019 00Z+1.9 hPa+0.5 hPa-0.2 hPa+2.3 hPa+2.6 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.7 hPa
17/07/2019 18Z-0.2 hPa-0.3 hPa-1.4 hPa-1.6 hPa+0.1 hPa-0.4 hPa+0.2 hPa
17/07/2019 12Z+1.3 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.3 hPa+0.5 hPa+1.9 hPa+1.5 hPa
17/07/2019 06Z+1.8 hPa+2.2 hPa-0.2 hPa+1.6 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.8 hPa
17/07/2019 00Z-1.5 hPa-0.3 hPa-1.3 hPa-2.3 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.9 hPa-1 hPa
16/07/2019 18Z+1.7 hPa+1.1 hPa-0.4 hPa+0.7 hPa+2.4 hPa+1 hPa+2.1 hPa
16/07/2019 12Z-0.9 hPa+0.3 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.5 hPa-0.8 hPa
16/07/2019 06Z+1.2 hPa+1.3 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.6 hPa+1.2 hPa+1.2 hPa+1.4 hPa
16/07/2019 00Z+1.6 hPa+3.2 hPa+1.3 hPa+1 hPa+1.1 hPa+2.7 hPa+2.4 hPa
15/07/2019 18Z+0.3 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.4 hPa-0.1 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.5 hPa
15/07/2019 12Z+2.7 hPa+3.4 hPa+1.7 hPa+2.4 hPa+2.6 hPa+3.2 hPa+3.2 hPa
15/07/2019 06Z+0.8 hPa+1.7 hPa-0.7 hPa+0.9 hPa+1.1 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.8 hPa
15/07/2019 00Z+4.5 hPa+3.5 hPa+1.7 hPa+3.6 hPa+5.4 hPa+3.7 hPa+4.9 hPa
14/07/2019 18Z-2.7 hPa-2.4 hPa-2.8 hPa-3.3 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.4 hPa
14/07/2019 12Z+0 hPa-1 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.7 hPa+0.6 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.2 hPa
14/07/2019 06Z-1.1 hPa+0.6 hPa-1 hPa-2.3 hPa-1.3 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.1 hPa
14/07/2019 00Z-1.7 hPa-0.9 hPa-1.7 hPa-2.1 hPa-2 hPa-1 hPa-1.2 hPa
13/07/2019 18Z+2.4 hPa+1 hPa+1.1 hPa+3 hPa+2.4 hPa+1.5 hPa+2.1 hPa
13/07/2019 12Z-0.9 hPa-0.1 hPa-1.7 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.5 hPa
13/07/2019 06Z+0.1 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.2 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.1 hPa
13/07/2019 00Z-0.6 hPa+0.8 hPa-3.3 hPa-2.1 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.3 hPa
12/07/2019 18Z+0.6 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+1.1 hPa-0.1 hPa+0.7 hPa+0.4 hPa
12/07/2019 12Z+0.1 hPa+0.2 hPa-1.2 hPa-1 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.5 hPa
12/07/2019 06Z+2.9 hPa+2.4 hPa+2.3 hPa+2.7 hPa+2.5 hPa+2.9 hPa+2.9 hPa
12/07/2019 00Z-2.5 hPa-1.1 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.8 hPa-2.7 hPa-1.5 hPa-1.5 hPa
11/07/2019 18Z+2.7 hPa+2.2 hPa+1.1 hPa+2.2 hPa+2.7 hPa+2.2 hPa+2.8 hPa
11/07/2019 12Z+2.4 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.4 hPa+2.3 hPa+2.6 hPa+3 hPa
11/07/2019 06Z+3 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.6 hPa+2.9 hPa+3.3 hPa+2 hPa+2.4 hPa
11/07/2019 00Z+1.4 hPa+1.8 hPa-0.6 hPa+0.2 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.9 hPa
Moyenne+0.7 hPa+0.8 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.7 hPa+1 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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