• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Dcembre 2018

Dcembre 2018 - Janvier 2019 - Fvrier 2019 - Mars 2019 - Avril 2019 - Mai 2019


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
14/11/2018 06Z+1.8 C+1.7 C+2.5 C+1.5 C+2.3 C+1.5 C+1.1 C
14/11/2018 00Z-0.3 C+0.1 C+1.3 C-0.2 C-0.1 C-1.1 C-0.6 C
13/11/2018 18Z+1.1 C-0.3 C+1.2 C+1 C+1.8 C-1.7 C-0.2 C
13/11/2018 12Z+1.3 C+2.8 C+2.8 C+0.9 C+1.5 C+2.6 C+2.3 C
13/11/2018 06Z+3.4 C+1.8 C+2.7 C+2.8 C+4 C+1.2 C+3.4 C
13/11/2018 00Z+0.5 C+1.5 C+1.5 C+1.2 C+1.7 C+0.1 C+1.4 C
12/11/2018 18Z-1.2 C-1.9 C-1.3 C-0.5 C-0.5 C-3.8 C-1.7 C
12/11/2018 12Z+2 C+3.1 C+3.4 C+2 C+2.2 C+2.8 C+2.4 C
12/11/2018 06Z-4.7 C-2.7 C-2.5 C-2.4 C-4 C-5.4 C-5.2 C
12/11/2018 00Z-2.6 C-2.3 C-1.4 C-1.4 C-1.6 C-4.1 C-3.1 C
11/11/2018 18Z-2.2 C+0.1 C+1 C-1.2 C-1.7 C-2.5 C-2.3 C
11/11/2018 12Z+1.1 C+1.1 C+1.5 C+1.1 C+1.4 C+0.4 C+1.1 C
11/11/2018 06Z+0.3 C+1.2 C+1 C-0.1 C+0.2 C-0.1 C+0.1 C
11/11/2018 00Z+4.4 C+3.8 C+4.9 C+2.9 C+4.7 C+4.2 C+5.5 C
10/11/2018 18Z+2.5 C+1.2 C+2.9 C+2.3 C+3 C+0.8 C+2.3 C
10/11/2018 12Z-1 C-1 C-0.5 C+0.2 C-0.3 C-2.9 C-1.3 C
10/11/2018 06Z-1.6 C-0.2 C-1.4 C-0.8 C-1.1 C-1.7 C-1.3 C
10/11/2018 00Z+1.6 C+1.3 C+2.3 C+1.8 C+2.3 C+0.8 C+2 C
09/11/2018 18Z+4.8 C+4.1 C+4.6 C+3.3 C+4.9 C+4.5 C+5.7 C
09/11/2018 12Z+1.8 C+2.2 C+2.2 C+1.6 C+1.9 C+1.5 C+2.8 C
09/11/2018 06Z+3.2 C+2.6 C+3.7 C+2.4 C+2.9 C+2.7 C+3.3 C
09/11/2018 00Z-2.6 C-0.8 C-0.2 C-0.9 C-1.9 C-2.6 C-3.1 C
08/11/2018 18Z-0.7 C+0.3 C+0.4 C+0.6 C+0.1 C-1.1 C-0.6 C
08/11/2018 12Z+0.7 C+0.6 C+1.4 C+0.6 C+1.4 C-0.2 C+0.7 C
08/11/2018 06Z+0.1 C+1.6 C+1.8 C+0.4 C-0.2 C+1 C+1 C
08/11/2018 00Z-1.4 C-0.3 C-1.2 C+0.5 C+0.2 C-2.2 C-1 C
07/11/2018 18Z+3.7 C+3.1 C+3.6 C+2.5 C+4.4 C+3.1 C+4.1 C
07/11/2018 12Z-0.5 C+1.8 C+2.2 C+0.7 C+0.1 C+0.4 C+0.9 C
07/11/2018 06Z+1.3 C+1.2 C+2 C+1.3 C+2.2 C+0.6 C+2 C
07/11/2018 00Z+2.7 C+1.3 C+1.3 C+2.2 C+3.5 C+0.7 C+2.3 C
Moyenne+0.7 C+1 C+1.5 C+0.9 C+1.2 C+-0 C+0.8 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
14/11/2018 06Z+2.4 C-0.9 C+1.5 C+1.1 C+2.9 C+1.2 C+3.3 C
14/11/2018 00Z+-0 C-2.4 C-0.3 C-0.6 C+0.3 C-0.7 C-0.3 C
13/11/2018 18Z-1.3 C-2.5 C-0.6 C-0.7 C-1.1 C-1.6 C-1.7 C
13/11/2018 12Z+0.8 C+1.8 C+2.1 C+0.1 C+0.5 C+2.2 C+1.8 C
13/11/2018 06Z+1.4 C+0.9 C+1.2 C+1.5 C+1.2 C+1.2 C+1.4 C
13/11/2018 00Z+2.2 C+0.6 C+1.7 C+2 C+2 C+1.9 C+2 C
12/11/2018 18Z-3.1 C-3.4 C-3.7 C-2.8 C-2.9 C-4 C-3.3 C
12/11/2018 12Z+2.5 C+1 C+2.2 C+1.3 C+2.6 C+2.7 C+3.4 C
12/11/2018 06Z-2.3 C-3.7 C-2.6 C-2.3 C-2 C-2.7 C-2.5 C
12/11/2018 00Z-3.8 C-4.2 C-4.3 C-4.1 C-3.3 C-4.4 C-4.1 C
11/11/2018 18Z-1.8 C-1.1 C-0.2 C-1.2 C-1.6 C-1.1 C-1.3 C
11/11/2018 12Z-0.3 C-0.5 C+0.3 C-0.7 C-0.3 C+0.3 C+0.3 C
11/11/2018 06Z-0.9 C-0.2 C-0.5 C-2 C-1 C-0.2 C-0.2 C
11/11/2018 00Z+3.6 C+2 C+3.3 C+2.3 C+3.5 C+3.9 C+4.4 C
10/11/2018 18Z+1.2 C+0.3 C+1.8 C+1 C+1.1 C+1.2 C+1.1 C
10/11/2018 12Z-3.2 C-3.1 C-3.2 C-2.6 C-3 C-3.3 C-3 C
10/11/2018 06Z-1.1 C-1.9 C-2.2 C-2.3 C-0.7 C-1.4 C-1.2 C
10/11/2018 00Z+0.7 C-0.6 C+0.8 C-0.3 C+0.8 C+0.4 C+0.7 C
09/11/2018 18Z+2.7 C+2.5 C+2.8 C+1.8 C+2.5 C+3.2 C+3.3 C
09/11/2018 12Z+0.6 C+1.1 C+0.5 C+0.4 C+0.1 C+1 C+0.7 C
09/11/2018 06Z+1.7 C+0.8 C+2 C+0.9 C+1.6 C+1.8 C+1.7 C
09/11/2018 00Z+0.3 C-3.1 C+0.1 C-0.1 C+0.3 C-1.5 C-1.2 C
08/11/2018 18Z-0.8 C-0.7 C-1 C-0.8 C-0.4 C-0.4 C+0.1 C
08/11/2018 12Z-2 C-1.9 C-1.9 C-2.2 C-1.9 C-1.4 C-1.7 C
08/11/2018 06Z+0.2 C-0.2 C-0.9 C-0.6 C+0 C+0.1 C+0.5 C
08/11/2018 00Z-1 C-1.9 C-1.7 C-1.3 C-0.9 C-1.9 C-1.2 C
07/11/2018 18Z+2.5 C+0.9 C+2.1 C+1.3 C+2.5 C+2.4 C+3.2 C
07/11/2018 12Z+2.4 C+1 C+2 C+1.1 C+2.4 C+2.3 C+2.9 C
07/11/2018 06Z+1.1 C-1 C+0.3 C+0.1 C+1 C+0.5 C+1.2 C
07/11/2018 00Z+0.1 C+1.4 C+0.8 C+0.6 C-0.1 C+0.5 C-0.3 C
Moyenne+0.2 C-0.6 C+0.1 C-0.3 C+0.2 C+0.1 C+0.3 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
14/11/2018 06Z+8.3 %+86.6 %-44.7 %-26.2 %-17.9 %-49.7 %-77.6 %
14/11/2018 00Z-8.7 %-47.3 %-18.6 %-21.9 %-0.9 %+17.2 %-35.3 %
13/11/2018 18Z-20.7 %-58.8 %-16.3 %-14.9 %-24.1 %+4.5 %-8.4 %
13/11/2018 12Z+29.1 %+182.3 %+20.1 %+0.7 %-8.6 %+90.3 %+4.9 %
13/11/2018 06Z+62.6 %-80.9 %-8.7 %+16.9 %+99.9 %+34.2 %+22.3 %
13/11/2018 00Z-53.5 %-9.6 %-86.6 %-60.9 %-45.5 %-9.1 %-49.2 %
12/11/2018 18Z-6.8 %-21.9 %-15.2 %-53.6 %-13.1 %+14.8 %-1.5 %
12/11/2018 12Z-22.2 %+128.9 %-6.6 %-17.6 %-38.6 %-0.6 %-47 %
12/11/2018 06Z-65.1 %+134.5 %-26.8 %-60.6 %-77.4 %+12.4 %-68.7 %
12/11/2018 00Z+30.1 %-56.5 %+1 %-2.9 %+12.9 %+61 %+35.2 %
11/11/2018 18Z+32.7 %+115.2 %+68.3 %+46.2 %+12.4 %+139.9 %-5.6 %
11/11/2018 12Z+44.5 %+148.9 %+41.6 %+66.8 %+30.8 %+105 %+8.6 %
11/11/2018 06Z+24.8 %+151.3 %+61.8 %-1.1 %+10.5 %+135.5 %+32.7 %
11/11/2018 00Z-24.1 %+22.1 %-28.5 %+2 %-5.1 %-47.6 %-59 %
10/11/2018 18Z+1 %-52.2 %+16.5 %-6.5 %+42.1 %-4.3 %-31.8 %
10/11/2018 12Z+34 %-31.6 %+5.1 %+29.5 %+71.1 %+17.8 %-16.5 %
10/11/2018 06Z-79.6 %+32.5 %-83.3 %-80.8 %-82.6 %-36.4 %-47.2 %
10/11/2018 00Z+94.8 %+14.8 %+93.9 %+100.5 %+68 %+107.5 %+21.8 %
09/11/2018 18Z+36 %-1.6 %+19.6 %+79 %+65.6 %+6.8 %-6.2 %
09/11/2018 12Z+29.2 %-34.5 %-6.8 %+4.3 %+77.1 %+4.7 %+29.2 %
09/11/2018 06Z+79.8 %+28.9 %+46.9 %+81 %+47.6 %+85.2 %+48.9 %
09/11/2018 00Z-60.3 %-41.1 %-55.4 %-61.3 %-74.5 %-31.2 %-71.9 %
08/11/2018 18Z-32.2 %-31.6 %+5.6 %+27 %-35.5 %+29 %-31.7 %
08/11/2018 12Z+40.4 %-63.9 %+74.5 %+13.6 %+17.4 %+94.6 %+39.2 %
08/11/2018 06Z-1.4 %+66.2 %+47.3 %-12.7 %-43.2 %+95.5 %+49.8 %
08/11/2018 00Z-24 %-60.4 %-62.2 %-27.5 %-23.2 %-43.7 %-50.9 %
07/11/2018 18Z+40.6 %+28.5 %-34.9 %+29.4 %+45.3 %+4.4 %-44.1 %
07/11/2018 12Z-33 %+54.5 %-49.3 %-29.4 %-9.6 %-38 %-60.4 %
07/11/2018 06Z+94.3 %-26.5 %+52.4 %+37.3 %+91.7 %+25.5 %+5.8 %
07/11/2018 00Z+32.3 %-93.5 %+23.3 %-20.1 %+37.2 %+73 %+63.2 %
Moyenne+9.4 %+16.1 %+1.1 %+1.2 %+7.7 %+29.9 %-11.7 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
14/11/2018 06Z+2.9 hPa+5.6 hPa-0.1 hPa-1.1 hPa+4.1 hPa+3.7 hPa+5.3 hPa
14/11/2018 00Z-3.8 hPa-2.2 hPa-5.2 hPa-4.5 hPa-2.8 hPa-3.2 hPa-2.9 hPa
13/11/2018 18Z+0.3 hPa+2.4 hPa+1.1 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.4 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.4 hPa
13/11/2018 12Z-9.3 hPa-6.7 hPa-10.8 hPa-12.6 hPa-8.5 hPa-8.5 hPa-7.8 hPa
13/11/2018 06Z+1.1 hPa+3.9 hPa+5 hPa+2.6 hPa-0.6 hPa+3.5 hPa+0.7 hPa
13/11/2018 00Z+5.8 hPa+5.7 hPa+3.5 hPa+4.2 hPa+6.2 hPa+5.2 hPa+5.7 hPa
12/11/2018 18Z-1.6 hPa-3.2 hPa-0.8 hPa+0.7 hPa-1.1 hPa-2 hPa-2.3 hPa
12/11/2018 12Z-5.4 hPa-3.3 hPa-7.8 hPa-9 hPa-4 hPa-4.9 hPa-3.7 hPa
12/11/2018 06Z+6.3 hPa+3 hPa+2 hPa+5.4 hPa+8.5 hPa+4.2 hPa+7 hPa
12/11/2018 00Z-4.3 hPa-2.3 hPa-3.3 hPa-3.4 hPa-4.2 hPa-2.7 hPa-3.4 hPa
11/11/2018 18Z-13.2 hPa-10.3 hPa-14.6 hPa-16.9 hPa-12.1 hPa-11.5 hPa-10.7 hPa
11/11/2018 12Z-6.4 hPa-2.2 hPa-5.3 hPa-8.1 hPa-6.8 hPa-3.9 hPa-4.6 hPa
11/11/2018 06Z-8.5 hPa-5.9 hPa-8.9 hPa-9.7 hPa-7.6 hPa-7.1 hPa-6.4 hPa
11/11/2018 00Z+1 hPa+5.1 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.9 hPa+0.4 hPa+3.2 hPa+2.3 hPa
10/11/2018 18Z+0.5 hPa+5.6 hPa+2.6 hPa-0.8 hPa-1 hPa+4.1 hPa+1.8 hPa
10/11/2018 12Z-5.1 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.8 hPa-4.8 hPa-5.9 hPa-2.9 hPa-4.5 hPa
10/11/2018 06Z+2.8 hPa-2.1 hPa-0.7 hPa+3.9 hPa+5.3 hPa-0.8 hPa+1.8 hPa
10/11/2018 00Z-5.8 hPa-0.1 hPa-3.1 hPa-7.2 hPa-6.7 hPa-2.3 hPa-4.3 hPa
09/11/2018 18Z-6.8 hPa-1.9 hPa-4.4 hPa-8.7 hPa-7.7 hPa-3.9 hPa-5.5 hPa
09/11/2018 12Z-0.7 hPa-0.1 hPa+1 hPa+0.5 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.5 hPa
09/11/2018 06Z-12.2 hPa-6.7 hPa-11 hPa-14.7 hPa-11.6 hPa-9.1 hPa-10.4 hPa
09/11/2018 00Z+3.1 hPa+1.6 hPa-0.8 hPa+1.6 hPa+5 hPa+1.7 hPa+3.4 hPa
08/11/2018 18Z-3 hPa-2.6 hPa-3.5 hPa-5.4 hPa-2.4 hPa-2.8 hPa-2 hPa
08/11/2018 12Z-2.9 hPa-1.3 hPa-0.5 hPa-0.8 hPa-3.7 hPa-1.8 hPa-3.1 hPa
08/11/2018 06Z-5.4 hPa-6.4 hPa-6.5 hPa-5.8 hPa-3.8 hPa-6.8 hPa-5.5 hPa
08/11/2018 00Z+1.1 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.3 hPa+1 hPa+1.7 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.9 hPa
07/11/2018 18Z-5.3 hPa-1.2 hPa-4.6 hPa-8.2 hPa-5.9 hPa-3 hPa-3.3 hPa
07/11/2018 12Z-0.8 hPa-1.6 hPa-4.2 hPa-2.7 hPa+0.8 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.3 hPa
07/11/2018 06Z-4.5 hPa+1.8 hPa-1.6 hPa-5.5 hPa-5.3 hPa-0.7 hPa-2.4 hPa
07/11/2018 00Z+1.6 hPa+3.5 hPa+5.8 hPa+3.9 hPa-0.7 hPa+3.6 hPa+0.4 hPa
Moyenne-2.6 hPa-0.8 hPa-2.6 hPa-3.6 hPa-2.4 hPa-1.6 hPa-1.8 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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